Tuesday, November 30, 2010

Chapter 11 : TFY : Inductive Reasoning: How Do I Reason from Premises

Induction mean to lead in

Induction is to reason to a conclusion about all members of a class on the basis of an examination of a few members of a class.
Induction reasons from the particular to the general.
Reasoning from Sensory Observation
Major scientific discoveries have resulted from accidents that just happened to be given close attention by someone who was both a curious skilled observer and an inductive thinker.

Sensory observation is the awareness of self and of the world through the basic senses of sight, touch, taste, smell ,and hearing. Ancillary senses include a sense of time, weight, energy, pressure, motion, balance, direction, sexuality, feelings, emotions, pain, strength, weakness, solidity, lightness, darkness, color, fluidity, heat, cold, pitch, tonality, and vibration.

Reasoning from Enumeration
Induction can involve a simple counting of parts in order to draw conclusions about wholes.

Enumerate means (1) to count off or name one by one or (2) to determine a number from counting.

Analogical Reasoning
Inductive reasoning also draws conclusions from making comparisons in the form of analogies.

Analogy means (1) to find a correspondence of similarity between things that seem different or (2) an inference that if two thinks are alike in some respects, they will be alike in other respects.

Discovering Patterns
Inductive reasoning looks for patterns, notes their characteristics and draws conclusions about their nature and significance.

Pattern is a design or form that is perceived. A pattern can involve shapes, images, ideas, words, signs, entities, sound, or smells that suggest some recognizable configuration or rhythm.

Reasoning From and About Cause
We use inductive reasoning to determine the probable causes of events.

Cause meaning reason or purpose.
Cause means that which produces an effect, or result, or a consequence, something that is responsible for an event or a source of influence.

Reasoning with Hypotheses
Science formulates and tests hypotheses in order to explain and predict phenomena.

Hypothesis meaning a supposition. A hypothesis is the name given to a trial idea, tentative explanation, or working assumption that can be used to further investigation.
The conclusion of an inductive study generalizes to produce a universal claim based on empirical findings. This conclusion may or may not confirm the hypotheses tested. Yet such a conclusion remains probable rather than totally certain because further evidence could challenge its findings.

Reasoning Through Statistics and Probability
Induction uses the sciences of statistics and probability to gather, organize and interpret data and make predictions with these data.

Statistic: The mathematics of the collection, organization, and interpretation of numerical data.

Probability: In statistics, the ratio of the number of actual occurrences of a specific event to the total number of possible occurrences.

Fallacies of Inductive Reasoning
1. Hasty generalization is the fallacy of overgeneralizing, of drawing a conclusion about the whole from an insufficient sampling of its parts.
2. Either-Or Fallacy, or False Dilemma is a fallacious argument that over simplifies a situation, maintaining that there are only two choices when actually other alternatives exist.
3. Questionable Statistic is the fallacy of offering statistic that are unknowable, faulty, or misleading.
4. Contradictions and Inconsistencies is the fallacy of making claims or offering evidence that contradicts the conclusion.
5. Loaded Question is the fallacy of using a biased question in order to obtain a predetermined result.
6. False Analogy is the fallacy of basing an argument on a comparison of two things that may have some similarities, but also significant differences that are ignored for the sake of the argument.
7. False Cause is the fallacy of claiming a causal connection between events without reasonable and sufficient evidence to support the claim.
8. Slippery Slope is the fallacy of arguing, without sufficient proof, that if one event is allowed to occur, a disastrous and uncontrollable chain reaction will result. The slippery slope appeals to fear and urges agreement on the basis of a situation that contains too many variables and unknowns.

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